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Sunday, March 5, 2023

Stocks Rebounded After Three Weeks Decline

Weekly Wrap Content for the week of Mar 3:

1. Week 9 major indexes performance;

2. Week 9 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S.

For the week ended Mar 3, 2023, major U.S indexes closed higher and regained some ground following their worst weekly decline in two months. Heavy economic calendar offers mixed signals, sentiment also appeared to gain support from the S&P 500 Index staying above its 200-day moving average, a metric commonly followed by technical analysts and traders. Refer to major indexes’ weekly performance tables below.

Key highlights for the week and outlook:

1.    Manufacturing PMI ticked higher in Feb for the first time since May, although it remained in contraction territory at 47.7. The services PMI fell slightly but less than consensus expectations and still indicated moderate expansion (55.1). 

2.    Market expected rate hikes might pause in summer. Given ongoing inflationary pressures, market expectations for Fed rate hikes have notably increased since the start of the year. Market forecasts now call for three additional rate hikes in 2023 (in the March, May and June FOMC meetings), which would bring the fed funds rate to around 5.5%. Historically the Fed tends not to pause rate hikes until it is at or above the rate of inflation.

SPX sectors in play

Nine out of 11 sectors within the SPX index closed positive for the week. Energy(XLE) and materials(XLB) shares were especially strong, while communication services(XLC) were helped by a gain in Facebook parent Meta Platforms. Utilities stocks(XLU) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Among the major indexes, SPX rebounded after fell to testing its 200dma earlier in the week, regained lost ground and managed to close above all major Mas i.e 50/200 and 250dma, which is a bullish sign. Nasdaq Composite Index also rebounded after three weeks’ decline, Dow index recovered most of it previous week’s loss this week. Refer to below indexes weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Chinese stocks rose for the second week ahead of the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting as strong economic data raised prospects for a better-than-expected recovery. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index(SSE) increased 1.87%, and the blue chip CSI 300 gained 1.71% in local currency terms. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced after four weeks of losses and added 2.79%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    The meeting of the NPC, China’s parliament, starts Sunday, March 5, and is expected to last about one week. The meeting happens every five years and is closely watched for signs about economic policy shifts and any senior leadership changes. 

2.    China’s official manufacturing PMI data rose to 52.6 in February from January’s 50.1, marking the highest reading since April 2012 as domestic activity picked up. The nonmanufacturing PMI rose to 56.3 from 54.4 the previous month.

Technically, Hang Seng Index(.HSI) rebounded 1st week after four weeks’ decline. Closed well above 20,000 mark. The SSE index also advanced for 2nd week in a row, closed at its highest since Jul 2022, both indexes appear bullish with more room to upside as expected.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

STI index fell to 5th week in a row, pulled back to around its 250dma level at 3236. The recent pull back in STI index has been led by local trio banks, which started pullback by profit-taking after earnings results around mid-last month. The trio banks totally account 46.86% weight of the index.

Technically, STI fell more than 5% from its 30 Jan peak at 3408.19, given back all its gains this year and closed at its 250dma (yearly line) for the week, which is also its previous sideway consolidation base area. Immediate technical support at 3216(200dma)-3236(250dma) area, any break lower could lead to next support at around 3180 level.

STI weekly chart

 Source: Contents/Data including information from various public market reports

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