Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 29

Summary of content for the week of  May 29:

1. Week 22 major indexes performance;
2. Week 22 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
5. Major indexes performance for the month of May

U.S

U.S stocks rallied in the final hour of trading on Friday, performed a "V" shape recovery from its early loss in the day, as Trump's press conference appeared to be less ominous than what market expected. U.S three major indexes closed new high this week since rebounded from Mar low. Refer to the below index weekly and monthly performance tables. 

To highlight, SPX closed up 32% from Mar 23 low and down just 9.6% from Feb high. The sharp rebound mainly due to governments' unprecedented fiscal spending around the globe as well as aggressive monetary stimulus by major central banks. Stock markets are forward-looking despite current ugly economic data.

Technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index(#COMP) climbed within 3% of its Feb peak and it's the only index recorded positive YTD return with 5.77% up. Refer to below index weekly performance table. The more cyclical stocks gaining ground, the Financials( XLF) and Industrials(XLI) outperformed this week, while Energy(XLE) stocks lagged. Refer to below table for S&P 500 major sectors indexes weekly performance. 

China/HK

Investors in China and HK stocks were in cautious mood ahead of Trump's press conference on Friday. Many analysts agree that the potential withdrawal of U.S. trade privileges would have a negligible direct impact on HK as its main focus is on merchandise trade. Trade in the services category, which is far more important, is not affected.

MSCI announced a deal with the Hong Kong Exchange(HKEX), to sell 37 futures and options contracts based on its Asian and emerging market indexes. It will let the agreement license with Singapore Stock Exchange expire in Feb 2020 at the same time. This is positive news for HKEX. 

Singapore

STI edged up a little and closed within its technical support area 2500-2522 level. SGX was under selling pressure as it will stop trading MSCI index futures other than MSCI Singapore next year. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 22

Summary of content for the week of  May 22:

1. Week 21 major indexes performance;
2. Week 21 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S three major indexes finished the week with new highs since Mar low, on optimism over the reopening of the economies and hopes of getting vaccines. Though later in the week some caution returned as U.S-China tension raised further, China planned to impose a new security law in Hong Kong, and as U.S introduced a new law could force Chinese firms to delist from the U.S exchanges.

The "fear index" VIX has since dropped to around 28 from high of over 80 in March when panic selling occurred, this is an indication investors turned to more bullish and risk-on mode. U.S markets will be closed for a public holiday on Monday.

Among the 11 major SPX sectors, Industrials(XLI) and Energy(XLE) outperformed while Healthcare(XLV) lagged this week, refer to below sectors weekly performance table.

China/HK

Further deterioration in U.S-China relations as U.S introduced a new bill that required Chinese companies to prove that they are not owned or controlled by a foreign government. HK exchange would be a beneficiary as more Chinese ADRs would likely seek a Hk listing instead.  HSI index sold off hard on Friday as China announced plans to impose national security law on HK. The HSI index broke down its 7-week sideway consolidation support level, technical is bearish with immediate downside support at 21500-which is Mar low. SSE index also dropped but largely remain within its 4-week trading range. 

Singapore

Singapore STI index broke down and just inches closed below 2500 technically support, next level of support would be 2400 if it continued to drop. Singapore will be closed for a public holiday on Monday and will resume trading on Tuesday.  

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 15

Summary of content for the week of  May 15:

1. Week 20 major indexes performance;
2. Week 20 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks ended lower and erased most of the prior week's gain as renewed U.S-China trade tensions and bleak economic data and warnings of further weakness ahead from Fed. U.S stocks losses divided, the technology dominant Nasdaq dropped little with 1.17% down but DJI index lost big with 2.65% down. Technically, no clear direction for the coming week as the week's candlesticks largely within prior 4-week trading range for SPX and DJI and Nasdaq formed a doji-liked candlestick which was indecisive. SPX and Nasdaq closed above both their 20 and 50 dma and DJI closed in between 20 and 50dma.

Among 11 major SPY sectors, Health care and consumer (both staples and discretionary) shares held up relatively well, while energy stocks lagged despite a rise in domestic oil prices, which touched their highest level in over a month. Real estate shares were also exceptionally weak, as worries grew that struggling retailers and other businesses would be unable to make lease payments.

China/HK

China A-Shares were able to hold steady as U.S stock came under selling pressure until midweek, before weakening on renewed anti-China threats from Trump. SSE finished the first week down after two consecutive weeks up. HSI index down but still trading within its 6-week trading range with no clear direction. 

Singapore

STI gave back all its prior week's gain and still trapped within its 5-week trading range as well. No clear direction with immediate technical support at 2500-2522 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 8

Summary of content for the week of  May 8:

1. Week 19 major indexes performance;
2. Week 19 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;


U.S
U.S stocks finished decisively higher this week. All three major indexes posting weekly gains, and the technology dominant Nasdaq index outperformed and moves into positive territory for the year- with 1.66% YTD. Technically Nasdaq have had a V shape rebound and within roughly 7% of its all-time high in Feb. The SPX index also recouped 61.8% of its loss from Feb high to Mar low.

Stocks recover obviously much faster than the economy itself as economic data reflects prior and/or current conditions while stock is forward-looking. Markets are now reflecting a more positive outlook towards economic restart and rising corporate profit later this year and through 2021. It does not mean market will go higher all the way from here and short term pull-back possible given that negative news not fully baked in and still bad economic data. Short term pullbacks could provide buying opportunities for long-term investment.

Going forward, companies in different sectors will experience different recovery stories. Travel, hospitality and leisure activities will have more virus impact, and healthcare and technology, online consumer spending will see higher growth. 

Within SPY 11 major sectors as shown in below weekly sector performer table, Energy(XLE) and Tech(XLK) are very strong. Utilities(XLU) and Consumer Staples(XLP) shares lagged.

China/HK
China SSE index resumed their gradual uptrend in the holiday-shortened week. China's coronavirus risks continue to fade rapidly. National People's Congress(NPC) is confirmed to open on May 21 in Beijing with over 5000 delegates attending in person. 

HSI index dropped 1.68% for the week but still within its 5-week consolidation range.

Singapore
STI has been consolidating within its 4-week price range above its previous 10-year low 2522 level which is also a key technical support level, as long it can hold around 2522-2500 level. Market should gather more upside potential when coronavirus situation improves.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 1

Summary of content for the week of  May 1:

1. Week 18 major indexes performance;
2. Week 18 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
4. Month of April major indexes performance
U.S
U.S stocks finished lower the last week of April, but SPX posted its best month since 1987, up 12.7% for the month, with the unprecedented central banks stimulus measures. Also new coronavirus cases slowing down globally and countries around the world reportedly slowly reopening their economies, but the recovery will be phased and gradual. Poor economic data released and a possible restart to the U.S -China trade war worries investors. 

Technically, U.S three major indexes all formed a weekly shooting-star candlestick which is bearish. But all three indexes remained above their respective 20 and 50dma after recent run up, especially Nasdaq index has been the strongest performer. First major support to watch SPX is 2720 in coming week.

China/HK
China stock market closed on Friday for extended Labor Day holiday and will resume on May 6, Wednesday. China SSE index has been consolidating within its 4-week trading range. HK's HSI index closed just beneath its 24900 resistance level, it should most likely follow if Wall St continues to selloff in coming week.

Singapore
STI reported best gain in last week of April with 4.2% up, hitting 7-week new high. Continue to watch 2522 its previous 10-yr low level for immediate support.