Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 26

Summary of content for the week of Jul 26:

1. Week 30 major indexes performance;
2. Week 30 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed hitting fresh highs for the week, helped by better-than-feared corporate earning results and a stronger-than-expected 2Q GDP. The latest GDP released on Friday came in at 2.1%, beat estimates for a 2% but down from 3.1% in Q1. Consumer expenditures, the biggest part of the economy, beats estimated to increase by 4.3%. Fed is expected to cut rates in the coming week. 

Within SPX 11 major sectors, Communication Services(XLC) outperformed helped by Google parent company Alphabet's(GOOGL) gain, and Twitter(TWTR). Utilities(XLU) and Energy(XLE) were the two lagging sectors.  Refer to major indexes and sector performance in below table.

China/HK
China shanghai stocks up as traders looked forward to high-level trade talks with the U.S next week in Shanghai, first face to face meeting between U.S and China negotiators since talks broke down in May. SSE index posted first week gain after two consecutive week slip. Plenty of room to upside from a technical point of view. 

HSI index recorded 1.28% down this week, has been trading within the range of 28000-29000 for 5-weeks so far, the unrest of protest in HK for about two months will make its economy outlook more damage than good. HK's tourism sector such as hotels, luxury brands already feel the hit from protest chaos. 

Singapore
STI index has been trading near its top technical trading range 3380-3320 for 4-weeks in a row. It should provide early signs if trades out of the range. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 19

Summary of content for the week of Jul 19:

1. Week 29 major indexes performance;
2. Week 29 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed slightly lower this week, after hitting a cord high the previous week. Most of the attention now shifting to corporate earnings announcement, kick-started with banks. There are three heavy-weighted tech companies including FB, AMZN and GOOGL will report earning the coming week. The near-term rate cut expectations, U.S-Iran geopolitical tensions and U.S-China trade talks progress are also factors in play.

Among the major 11 SPX sectors, Consumer Staples(XLP) and Materials(XLB) shares outperformed. Energy(XLE) and Communication Services(XLC) are laggers, dragged lower by a plunge of Netflix(NFLX) share price. Crude Oil prices declined for five days in a row, finished 7% lower on global demand concerns.

China/HK
Shanghai stocks ended the week almost flat, China's GDP reported for 2Q rose 6.2%--its weakest in 27 years. There are hopes for more stimulus measures to support the economy should further signs of economics weakness emerged. HSI index was the most outperformed in my watchlist with 1.03% gain this week. Technically there are about 500 pts for upside move till it meets major resistance 29200 level.

Singapore
STI was trading approach its year high 3415, technical appears bullish as seen in below weekly charts.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 12

Summary of content for the week of Jul 12:

1. Week 28 major indexes performance;
2. Week 28 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks hit fresh new record highs this week on the expectation of Fed rate cut. All three major indexes hit a record high, DJI and SPX closing above 27,000 and 3,000 levels respectively for the first time, that's remarkable. Technology dominant Nasdaq index hit a record high as well. The Fed and ECB both considering fresh stimulus to the economy through interest-rate cuts. U.S solid consumer spending which accounts for 70% of economic growth is the main driver to its economy, as well as its unemployment rate at 50-yr low and low-interest rate. On the other hand, one of the main uncertainties for economy growth still U.S-China trade negotiations. One chart worth to take a look is the output gap and stages of the U.S business cycle, 1965-2019, as below:

Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, July 2019. 
Notes: This chart shows an estimate of the U.S. output gap (that is, GDP as a percentage of potential GDP). We have classified different time periods as belonging to certain stages of the business cycle. The classification of the stage is done via a 'cluster analysis' that groups together time periods where economic series have behaved in similar ways.


Among 11 major sectors, Energy(XLE) was the best performer and Healthcare(XLV) was lagging behind. 

China/HK
China Shanghai index recorded weekly loss, as the latest data from China showing both weaker imports and exports from U.S. Also the uncertainties about U.S-China trade talks are unlikely to be settled so soon. The three Asian indexes under my watchlist all posted weekly losses.

Singapore
STI had a pause this week after 5-week up in a row. Upside immediate resistance is year-high at 3415 and immediate technical support is at 3320 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 5

Summary of content for the week of Jul 5:

1. Week 27 major indexes performance;
2. Week 27 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks extended their recent gains in a holiday-shortened week, SPX closed remarkably record high for the week. Investors breathed a sigh of relief after the U.S and China agreed to suspend new tariffs and resume negotiations. The rally in bonds was also extended last week, as the 10-year government bond yields fell to their lowest levels in more than 2-year amid signs of lower U.S growth and expected Fed rate cut. But the closely watched Friday's employment report showed that U.S economy added 224k new jobs in June, the strongest month since January, this cooled elevated Fed rate cut expectation. The SPX technical resistance to watch is 3030 level. 

 Among the 11 SPX main sectors, the small Real Estate sector(XLRE) outperformed, while Energy(XLE) share fell. Refer to below SPY sector ETFs weekly performance table. 

China/HK
China and HK stocks posted a weekly gain, as investors reacted with relief to a temporary ceasefire on tariffs by Trump and Xi at the G20 meeting last week. the SSE index closed in 9-week high, with immediate technical resistance at 3050 level, while the HSI index technical resistance at 30,000 level. 

Singapore
The STI extended its weekly gain into 5th week in a row, approaching its all-time high this year, immediate technical resistance at 3415.