Index Weekly/Monthly Wrap for the Week of Jun 28

Summary of content for the week of Jun 28:

1. Week 26 major indexes performance;
2. Week 26 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
4. Major indexes monthly performance for the month of June.

U.S
U.S stocks finished slightly down for the week as markets digested the strong gains for the month of June. Also, investors await the much anticipated G20 summit in Japan with hopes of trade truce and resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S and China. The week marked the end of 2Q and 1H of 2019, as well as the 10th year of current economic expansion- the longest-running one on record since 2009. 

The latest update from Trump-Xi meeting concluded three major agreements: 1) U.S agrees to refrain from new tariffs on Chinese goods; 2) China back to buy Agri products; 3) Trump allows U.S companies to sell products to Huawei. Tech companies expected to bounce including AMD, Xilinx(NVDA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Intel(INTC). 

China/HK
Shanghai stocks softened for the week as traders stayed cautious ahead of Trump-Xi meeting. Expected markets will rebound in the coming week(s) as Trump-Xi meeting yield positive results as expected. 

Singapore
STI closed almost unchanged this week ahead of Trump-Xi meeting but it had strong gain in the month of June with 6.5% up, recovered most of its loss in May, we are looking forward next target 3415 in the coming week(s) which is year high 2019. Tech stocks and blue chips will be in focus.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 21

Summary of content for the week of Jun 21:

1. Week 25 major indexes performance;
2. Week 25 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
U.S stocks finished higher for the 3rd week in a row, with SPX and DJI closed at fresh new highs. As Fed signaled a possible rate cut 2H this year at its latest policy meeting on Thursday to support economic expansion. Crude oil rallied this week as rising tension in the Middle East, oil-related stocks got boosted. The Fed's dovish statement pushed treasury yields lower-- the 10-yr treasury yield hit lowest since late 2016, which is positive for the high dividend yield stocks such as REITs and rate sensitive sectors such as properties. 

Among the 11 SPX sectors, Energy(XLE) was the best performer this week with more than 4% gain, Consumer(XLP) and Materials(XLB) were the two laggers. 

Semiconductor stocks under selling pressure after the U.S added another five Chinese firms to its entity list ahead G20 meeting next week, targeting Chinese supercomputing companies this round. AMD tumbled more than 3%, while Xilinx(XLNX) and Nvidia(NVDA) fell 2.2% and 1.5% respectively. Trump-Xi meeting is in investors' focus in the coming week G20. 

China/HK

China Shanghai SSE and HSI added were the two most outperform indexes with 4.16% and 5% up this week, as traders bet that Trump-Xi at upcoming G20 meeting would lead to resume trade talks that broke down last month. 

Among the latest five Chinese firms which were put on U.S entity list, there is one listed in Shanghai stock exchange- Sugon(中科曙光 SH:603019) will be under selling pressure in the coming week(s). Note when another Chinese company ZTE( 中兴通讯HK:00763) was under U.S sanction in Apr 2018, it fell as much as 60% before rebounded. How will Sugon(中科曙光 SH:603019) react this time around? It closed at 40.55 CNY on Friday, a 60% drop would bring it down to around 16.2 CNY. Let’s see.

Singapore

STI recorded 3rd week up in a row, added more than 3% this week, that's remarkable. The weekly candlestick looks bullish, next technical target would be 3360 then 3400 levels going forward.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 14

Summary of content for the week of Jun 14:

1. Week 24 major indexes performance;
2. Week 24 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
U.S stocks edged higher in a relatively quiet week. Economic data released this week shows U.S retails sales rebounded in May following 1Q slow, indicates that consumers are still well-positioned, It's an important indicator as the consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of GDP. Another indicator CPI showed May inflation slowed to 2% last month from 2.1% in Apr. 

However, market sentiments dampened by the U.S-China trade tensions and 10-year and 3M treasury yield inversion. 

Among SPX 11 major sectors, Consumer Discretionary(XLY) is the most outperformed sector and Energy(XLE) lagged, oil attempted to rally following attacks on two tankers in middle east, but finished lower in worries of lower global demand.

China/HK
China stocks rebounded as market confident the government would step up stimulus measures to cushion the economy from the impact of U.S tariffs. HK stocks erased earlier gain as street protest turned into a riot, which added uncertainties to HK outlook. 

Singapore
STI recorded a strong 2nd-week rebound with an immediate resistance level at 3233 level.

 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 7

Summary of content for the week of Jun 7:

1. Week 23 major indexes performance;
2. Week 23 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
Stocks rebounded from losses in May as anticipation grew that the Fed could cut interest rate to support U.S economic growth 2H this year. SPX closed up 4.4% which is the best weekly gain in six months. At the same time bond yield dropped to the lowest levels in two years. The economic data released were mixed but Fed cut of interest rate and U.S-Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs were the main pushing factors for stocks rebound.

All 11 major SPX sectors up for the week, Materials(XLB) and Technology(XLK) are the two best performers and Communications(XLC) lagging. Crude oil price added 1.46 or 2.78% to 54.05 per barrel, 1st week closed up after two-week decline. 

China/HK
China and HK markets were closed for a public holiday on Friday, closed this week at its 4-month low. Technical support to watch will be at 2800 in coming week(s). HSI closed slightly higher this week, just beneath 27000 technical support level. 

Singapore
STI added 1.6% this week, finished rebound after 4-week consecutive decline. Immediate technical support level to watch is at 3100. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 31

Summary of content for the week of May 31:

1. Week 22 major indexes performance;
2. Week 22 US sector indexes performance;
3. Monthly Indexes performance for May;
4. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S

U.S stocks dropped 4th week in a row, ended the month of May solidly lower amid rising trade tension with China and latest with Mexico. SPX index dropped below its 200dma, considered a pivot level. Bond prices continue rallied and as a result 10-yr bond yield declined to lowest level in 21 months, the inverted yield between 3M and 10-yr bond has been a reliable recession signal in the past with 6 months to 3years lag based on historical data. 

All the 11 sectors dropped this week in the S&P 500, Energy(XLE) performed worst and Real Estate(XLRE) help up best. 

The month of May seen major indexes in my table below lost between 5.8% to 9.4%. The monthly candlesticks for major indexes look bearish, signal further downside possible. 

China/HK
Shanghai index edged up a slightly weekly gain but still recorded their biggest monthly loss since October. Trade relations deteriorated over the week as China threatened to ban on its rare earth to the U.S and would set up "unreliable" foreign entities. 

Singapore
STI recorded 8.3% loss in May 2nd worst index after HSI. It dropped to 4-month low. The monthly candlestick looks pretty bearish, expected further downside move.