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Saturday, June 25, 2016

Weekly Wrap

As a result of Brexit won on Friday's referendum in UK, global equity and FX markets suffered immediate sell-off. Hard and furious. 
What to buy on Brexit:
1. Safe haven proxies like CHF, JPY, USD and gold will surge
2. Oil prices would come under pressure.
3. Stronger USD 
4. Stocks that benefit include Venture, Innovalues, ST Engineering, SIAEC, Riverstone, and UG Healthcare.
5. Stronger spot gold price
6. Beneficiaries include gold ETF (GLD US$), miners (CNMC Goldmine & Anchor Resources)
7. Lower oil prices
8. Negative for all oil-related counters including heavyweights Keppel Corp & Sembcorp Marine, service providers Ezion & Ezra, as well as upstream oil producers KrisEnergy, Rex, Ramba, etc.
9. UK votes to leave EU, impacts on HK listed companies:
Negative:
HSBC (5) – approximately 25-30% revenue from UK/Europe
Standard Chartered (2888) – approximately 6% revenue from UK/Europe
Textile companies – 15-20% exports are to EU and sales dominated in Euro
Positive:
Yashili (1230) – 50% of raw milk cost of sales in Euro
Brilliance China (1114) – Certain components are imported from EU
For major indexes under my radar, this week marks all indexes YTD return are under water. Weekly index performance as in below table:
STI weekly chart shows its down trend channel is well intacted. The index is under further downside pressure, if it can not hold above immediate support level at 2715.
HSI spiked below its short term uptrend channel intraday on Friday but rebounded and managed to close within the channel, a close below its bottom channel line indicate possible downside reversal, in coming week.
SSE index has been trading within its bottom consolidation range 3052-2663.
SPX dipped below its 2015 YEC level 2043 this week, Formed a double top which is bearish, if it can not rebound from this level in coming week.
Gold ETF GLD finally breakout to upside after multi months consolidation, plenty of room for upside.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Weekly Wrap

Global stock markets dropped this week ahead of Brexit which will be held coming week. Crude oil decline below 50 also add more woes.

SPX immediate support is at 2044 level, it rebound from there previously.

STI immediate support is at previous low 2713.

Shanghai index holding above 2800 by now.

Major indexes weekly performance as in below table.




Saturday, June 11, 2016

Weekly Wrap

Markets turned weak this week, all three US major indexes formed a bearish weekly candlestick after hitting their resistance levels. Coming week will be the "confirmation" for bears to take charge.

STI was sell-off after hit target 2882 YEC level. Formed a bearish candle.

HSI gained 0.5% for the week, looks still have some room to upside, YTD a loss of 4%,

SSE had only three trading days for the week, overhead target is 3052.

Major index performance as in below table.




Saturday, June 4, 2016

Weekly/Monthly Wrap

China market rebounded this week, after three weeks bottom consolidation. Immediate resistance 3050-3100 area.

HSI 3rd week rebound, with target level 21910 YEC.

STI 3rd week rebound with target 2882 level.

 Does "Sell in May do away" true statement? Well, the answer is the three US major indexes up in May whereas the three Asian ones declined. Weekly and monthly index performance as in below two tables.