2025 Closes Strong on Record Highs as the New Year Kicks Off

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Main Content:

1.    Major indices’  performance 2025

2.    U.S stocks yearly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index  performance 2025

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks yearly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks yearly wrap 

6.    Major indices weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jan 2, U.S. equities retreated modestly during the holiday-shortened week amid light trading volumes, though major indexes closed out 2025 with double-digit gains for the third consecutive year. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) underperformed for the week, followed by the Russell 2000 (RUT) and S&P 500 (SPX), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) proved relatively more resilient.

The scale of outperformance in U.S. mega-cap technology stocks throughout this bull market has been striking. Over the past three years, the Magnificent Seven have surged 325%, far outpacing the approximately 80% gain in the S&P 500, 40% in the Russell 2000, 50% in the Euro Stoxx, and 95% in Japan’s Nikkei.

Refer to the major indexes’ 2025 performance table below. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) was the top performer with a 28% gain, followed by the Straits Times Index (STI) at 23%, Nasdaq Composite (20%), Shanghai Composite (18%), S&P 500 (16%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (13%), and FBM KLCI (2%).

Note: price return, excluding dividends

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S. economic resilience remains intact. Recent data continue to point to a firm economic backdrop heading into 2026. While shutdown-related distortions clouded late-2025 releases, consumer activity remains healthy, reinforcing expectations for continued expansion rather than a sharp slowdown. 

2.    Inflation trends remain supportive but require confirmation. With prior CPI readings affected by data collection issues, upcoming inflation and labor reports will be closely watched for a cleaner read. Consensus expectations point to inflation holding near 3% before easing later in 2026. 

3.    Labor market shows cooling, not stress. Jobless claims declined for a third consecutive week to 199k, among the lowest readings of the year, while continuing claims also edged lower—suggesting a labor market that is gradually normalizing rather than deteriorating. 

4.    Fed outlook remains finely balanced. December FOMC minutes highlighted divisions among policymakers, with most officials open to further easing if inflation cools as expected, while others prefer patience. Markets continue to price limited rate cuts in 2026 rather than aggressive easing. 

5.    Housing activity shows early signs of stabilization. Pending home sales rose 3.3% in November, the largest increase since early 2023, supported by lower mortgage rates and wage growth outpacing home price appreciation. 

6.    Diversification themes gain importance into 2026. With mega-cap technology leadership showing signs of broadening, earnings growth is expected to become more evenly distributed across sectors, mid-caps, and international markets—reinforcing the case for diversified portfolios.

 

SPX sectors in play

Within the S&P 500, Energy was among the few sectors to post gains, supported by higher oil prices amid elevated geopolitical tensions. Looking into 2026, cyclicals, value-style investments, mid-caps, and international equities continue to trade near historical average valuations and may benefit from improving liquidity conditions. Refer to the SPX sector ETF performance table for 2025 below.

Note: price return, excluding dividends

Indices technical levels

All three major U.S. indexes appear to be consolidating sideways while maintaining their primary uptrends. Click below three indices for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China / Hong Kong

Mainland China equity markets ended the holiday-shortened week mixed. The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) edged higher, while the blue-chip CSI 300 declined slightly. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 2.01%, led by technology and AI-related stocks.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

Official data released Wednesday showed China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December, up from 49.2 in November, ending an eight-month contraction streak. The improvement supports the view that Beijing is likely to adopt a measured approach to stimulus in 2026, though some analysts continue to argue for more aggressive measures to revive domestic consumption.

Refer to below Hang Seng Index constituents’ performance table for 2025.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) delivered a strong performance in 2025, closing up 22.67% (price return, excluding dividends)—its second consecutive year of double-digit gains, following a 16.89% return in 2024. Analysts remain constructive on the STI heading into 2026, supported by stable fundamentals, attractive yields, and improving regional sentiment.

Refer to below STI index stocks’ performance for 2025.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Equities End Year Firm as Inflation Cools; Gold and Silver Rally

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Main Content:

1.    Major indices’ weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indices weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 26, major U.S. indices pushed to fresh record highs amid light trading volumes and generally supportive macro data. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) both closed at new highs, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also finished higher, supported by continued optimism around AI. Gold and silver prices surged, extending their year-to-date rally as investors sought traditional safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets amid mixed economic signals.

As 2025 draws to a close, U.S. equity markets have delivered strong double-digit gains, supported by resilient economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and sustained earnings momentum—particularly within technology-related sectors. Refer to the table below for the major indices' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S. growth remains resilient. U.S. GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3% in 3Q, the fastest pace in two years and well above expectations, led by robust consumer spending and reinforcing confidence in late-cycle economic resilience. 

2.    Inflation continues to cool. November CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation easing to 2.7% and core CPI slowing to 2.6%, the lowest since early 2021. 

3.    Labor market softens gradually. Nonfarm payrolls rose 64k, rebounding from October’s government-related decline, while unemployment edged up to 4.6%, consistent with a cooling—but still orderly—labor market adjustment. 

4.    Business momentum moderates. The Flash U.S. Composite PMI eased to 53.0, a six-month low, signaling slower expansion across manufacturing and services as firms adopt a more cautious hiring stance. 

5.    Fed policy bias tilts toward measured easing. Softer wage growth and hiring trends reinforce expectations for gradual policy easing into 2026, with markets pricing limited rather than aggressive rate cuts despite inflation remaining above target. 

6.    Precious metals extend their uptrend. Gold and silver advanced, supported by declining real yields, expectations of future Fed easing, and continued diversification demand amid late-cycle uncertainty.

 

SPX sectors in play

10 out of the 11 SPX sectors ended the week higher, with technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) outperformed, while Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged. Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.

Indices technical levels

Both SPX and DJI indices closed at new record, while Nasdaq(COMP) index also finished higher. Click below three indices for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets rose for the week. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.88% and the blue-chip CSI 300 advanced 1.95%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index recorded a modest gain of 0.50% as it closed for the week starting on Thursday due to holidays.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    No official economic indicators were released during the week. The latest batch of official data released earlier in December showed that November retail sales grew at the slowest year-over-year pace since the pandemic, while fixed asset investment was on track for the first annual contraction since 1998. 

2.    Despite numerous indicators signaling lackluster growth in the economy, most analysts expect China will meet its official growth target of about 5% this year. Earlier in December, the World Bank estimated that China’s economy grew 4.9% this year and forecast growth of 4.4% in 2026 as property weakness, trade policy uncertainty, and other headwinds persist. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) hit a new record, adding 1.45% this week to close at 4636.15. The two index heavyweight DBS and OCBC banks hit new record this week. DBS closed at 56.23, OCBC at 19.81, while UOB also finished higher, closing at 35.13. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Equities Consolidate as Inflation Cools; BoJ Hikes Rates

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 19, major U.S. indexes finished the last full trading week of the year mixed, as investors navigated noisy but generally encouraging macro data and continued rotation beneath the surface. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) outperformed, gaining 0.48%, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) ended the week largely unchanged. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined 0.67%, and the Russell 2000(RUT) underperformed, falling 0.86%.

U.S. equities started the week on a weaker note amid concerns over technology valuations, AI-related capital spending, and mixed economic data, but sentiment improved toward week’s end following a cooler-than-expected inflation report and strong earnings from Micron Technology. As 2025 draws to a close, markets have delivered solid double-digit year-to-date gains, supported by easing inflation pressures, resilient earnings, and expectations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Refer to the table below for the major indexes' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Inflation surprised to the downside

November CPI cooled more than expected, with headline inflation easing to 2.7% and core CPI slowing to 2.6%, the lowest level since early 2021. 

2.    Labor market remains soft but stable

Nonfarm payrolls rose 64k in November, rebounding from October’s government-driven decline. Hiring remained concentrated in healthcare and construction, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, reflecting a gradually cooling labor market rather than outright deterioration. 

3.    Business activity shows signs of slowing momentum

The Flash U.S. Composite PMI eased to 53.0, a six-month low, indicating slower growth across both manufacturing and services. Businesses appeared more cautious on hiring, citing a more challenging operating environment. 

4.    Fed bias remains toward gradual easing

Cooling wage growth and softer hiring trends reinforce expectations that the Fed maintains a measured easing bias in 2026, despite inflation remaining above its 2% target. Markets continue to price in limited rate cuts rather than aggressive policy easing. 

5.    Market leadership continues to broaden

Elevated mega-cap tech valuations and improving earnings momentum elsewhere have supported rotation into mid-caps, cyclicals, and non-tech sectors, while large-cap technology names took a breather following recent earnings disappointments. 

6.    Bank of Japan tightens policy further

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years, highlighting ongoing normalization in Japanese monetary policy and underscoring diverging global central bank paths as major economies move through different stages of the policy cycle.Fed delivers third straight rate cut, signals flexibility

SPX sectors in play

Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the week higher, with growth and technology-related stocks outperforming. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) led gains, while Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged.

Looking into 2026, cyclical sectors, small- and mid-cap companies, value-style investments, and international equities trade near their historical average valuations and stand to benefit from improving liquidity conditions and better credit availability. Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below. 

Indexes technical levels

SPX closed within its three-week consolidation range after a volatile week- it dipped below its 20dma on Wed but fully recovered on Friday after better-than-expected CPI data. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets ended the week on a mixed note, weighed by a trio of indicators underscoring lacklustre growth in the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) edged up 0.03% and the blue-chip CSI 300 lost 0.28%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1.10%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Retail sales rose 1.3% in November from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the pandemic, Bloomberg reported, citing data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Fixed asset investment fell 2.6% in the first 11 months of the year, lagging economists’ estimates and putting the measure on track for its first annual contraction in data going back to 1998. Industrial output also trailed forecasts and grew 4.8% year on year, underscoring the importance of China’s export sector in driving the economy as domestic demand languishes. 

2.    The latest retail sales data showed that consumption remains a weak spot in China’s economy despite the government’s efforts to stimulate demand. Earlier in December, China’s leaders signaled that they would refrain from ramping up stimulus next year even as they pledged to support growth. China will “flexibly and efficiently” use interest rate and reserve requirement cuts to ensure liquidity and maintain a “necessary” level of budget deficit and spending in 2026, according to a readout following the Central Economic Work Conference, an annual meeting of government officials that lays out the next year’s economic agenda. Analysts interpreted the readout as a sign that Beijing would stick with its current manufacturing-led growth strategy as it takes steps to boost consumption. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) fell 0.36% this week to close at 4569.78, retreat by  profit-taking after hitting intra-week new record. Rate sensitive stocks such as developers, REITs led the gains. Trading activity was typically subdued amid the school holidays and year-end festive period. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Fed Cut Rate Stocks Rotate Beyond Big Tech

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 12, major U.S. equities finished mixed but largely resilient, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive 25bp rate cut alongside messaging that was perceived as less hawkish than feared. Market leadership broadened, with small- and mid-cap stocks outperforming, while mega-cap technology paused amid valuation concerns.

The Russell 2000(RUT) led gains, rising 1.19%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), which added 1.05%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) declined 1.62%, weighed down by weakness in large-cap tech after disappointing earnings updates from select AI-related names. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the week lower after a sharp pullback on Friday erased earlier gains. Refer to the table below for the major indexes' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed delivers third straight rate cut, signals flexibility. The Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds target range by 25bps to 3.50%–3.75%, as expected. While the statement language hinted at a potential pause in January, Chair Powell emphasized heightened sensitivity to labor market risks and reiterated confidence that inflation will continue to cool. Notably, the Fed also announced plans to purchase short-term Treasury bills to support money market liquidity. 

2.    Policy outlook supportive, not overtly dovish. Despite dissent among three policymakers, the majority supported the cut due to slowing hiring trends. Updated projections show most FOMC members still expect lower rates ahead, with scope for one to two cuts that could bring rates toward the 3.0%–3.5% neutral range. 

3.    Labor market signals soften. Initial jobless claims jumped to 236k, the highest since September, raising concerns over near-term labor market momentum. While job openings edged higher to a five-month high, layoffs increased and the quits rate fell to its lowest level since 2020—suggesting workers are becoming more cautious. 

4.    Rates market reflects late-cycle easing. Treasury yields diverged, with short-term yields falling after the Fed decision while longer-dated yields edged higher. The 10-year Treasury yield remains rangebound near 4.0%–4.5%, reflecting lingering inflation concerns and fiscal uncertainty. Investment-grade credit outperformed, while high-yield bonds saw pockets of volatility. 

5.    Rotation away from mega-cap tech. Technology stocks lagged amid renewed concerns over AI-related capital spending and stretched valuations, following earnings disappointments from Oracle and Broadcom. This drove a rotation toward small- and mid-cap equities, which tend to benefit more directly from falling interest rates and easing financial conditions. 

SPX sectors in play

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors gained for the week, with interest-rate-sensitive and value-oriented segments such as Financials(XLB) and Materials(XLB) outperformed, while Technology-related( XLK) stocks lagged, reflecting a pause after strong year-to-date gains. The shift highlights improving breadth beneath the surface of the rally and supports the case for diversification as monetary policy becomes less restrictive. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Despite near-term volatility, the broader uptrend across U.S. equities remains intact. The Dow(DJI) and small-cap indexes pushed toward new highs, while the S&P 500(SPX) and Nasdaq(COMP) experienced healthy consolidation after extended runs. With policy easing nearing its later stages, markets appear to be transitioning from a liquidity-driven rally to a more earnings- and breadth-driven phase. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets retreated as investors took profits after recent months’ gains. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) fell 0.34% and the blue-chip CSI 300 shed 0.08%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index slid 0.42%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    November inflation data underscored the weight of deflationary pressures on China’s economy. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 0.7% in November year on year, staying above zero for the second straight month. But the producer price index fell 2.2%, marking the 38th straight month of declines. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged at 1.2%, Bloomberg reported, citing official data. 

2.    Unlike the U.S. and Europe, China has been grappling with deflation since the pandemic ended amid a prolonged housing slump that has in turn discouraged consumption. In response, the government launched a so-called anti-involution campaign aimed at curbing price wars and excessive output in industries ranging from food delivery to car manufacturing. But the latest inflation report suggested that Beijing’s efforts in beating deflation have had limited progress. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) gained 1.22% this week to close at 4,586.45, breaking out decisively to a new record high after four weeks of consolidation. Market sentiment remained constructive, supported by expectations of a more accommodative global rate environment following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s third consecutive rate cut. Trading activity was typically subdued amid the school holidays and year-end festive period.

As 2025 draws to a close, the STI has delivered a strong year-to-date gain of 21.09%, reflecting improved risk appetite, firmer liquidity conditions, and renewed interest in Singapore equities. Financials and yield-sensitive sectors remained relatively resilient, benefiting from expectations that global interest rates are approaching a more neutral level, while gains across the broader market were selective.Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.