U.S. Stocks Rebound on Positive Trade Headlines

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Apr 25, U.S. stocks advanced, supported by several reports indicating that the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China could be de-escalating. Speculation around near-term agreements with several other trading partners also appeared to be a tailwind, as were comments from Donald Trump that appeared to walk back his recent threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Nasdaq Composite(COMP) led returns for the major indexes in a sharp rebound from the prior week, while small- and mid-cap equities posted gains for the third consecutive week. Some better-than-expected corporate earnings releases during the week also seemed to be a driver of positive sentiment. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S. equity and bond markets staged a relief rally in the week, as the U.S. administration softened further its stance on trade and as worries over the Fed's independence subsided. With the U.S. seemingly looking for a path to reduce tariffs, the peak in trade uncertainty and market volatility may be behind us. Having moved away from extreme pessimism, any further gains will likely require more tangible developments and agreements with major countries, rather than just signs of easing tensions. 

2.    Earnings under spotlight. In the two-week span between April 21 and May 2, 60% of the S&P 500 companies will have reported earnings, including six of the Magnificent 7 companies. The earnings season is off to a solid start, with 75% of companies reporting earnings above estimates, surprising positively by 10% compared with the last 10-year average of 7%1. Yet, these results do not reflect any tariff headwinds to sales growth and profitability, which is why the focus is on forward-looking guidance. 

3.    Business activity growth hits 16-month low. S&P Global reported its Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey data for April, which indicated that U.S. business activity growth slowed to the lowest level in 16 months. While activity in the manufacturing space unexpectedly increased, from 50.2 in March to 50.7 in April, services activity growth slowed sharply, dragging the overall index down to 51.2 from 53.5 in the prior month 

4.    Consumer sentiment falls for fourth straight month. The University of Michigan reported that its final Index of Consumer Sentiment reading for April was 52.2, higher than a previous estimate but still 8% lower than March.

 

SPX sectors in play

10 out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, with the Tech(XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sectors led the gains. The defensive sector Consumer Staples(XLP) lagged. Analysts reckon opportunities in Health Care(XLV) and Financials(XLF) going forward. Health care is a sector that is expected to lead earnings growth in the first quarter and offers both defensive and growth characteristics. Financials(XLF) is less exposed to trade headwinds and can also benefit from the administration pivoting to tax cuts and deregulation in the back half of the year. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The SPX index broke above the major downtrend line drawn from the Fed 2025 peak, which is a bullish sign. It also closed above the Apr 9 giant 532-points day range 4948-5480 that we’ve been watching for the past two weeks, another bullish sign. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets advanced for the week amid expectations that the government will roll out more stimulus to cushion China’s economy from the impact of U.S. tariffs. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 0.56% while the blue chip CSI 300 rose 0.38%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 2.74%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    On Friday, China’s Politburo—the ruling Communist Party’s 24-member executive policymaking body—said it would “fully prepare” emergency plans in response to external shocks. The group also said that China would set up new monetary tools and policy financing instruments to boost technology, consumption, and trade, Bloomberg reported, citing state media. Officials also pledged to go “all out to consolidate the fundamentals of economic development and social stability.” 

2.    The readout from the Politburo, which is led by Chinese President Xi Jinping, indicated that Beijing was taking a patient approach toward supporting the economy amid the U.S. trade war. Most analysts see the impact of U.S. levies on China becoming evident in the near term after the Trump administration hiked total tariffs on most Chinese goods to 145% earlier in April. But China’s better-than-expected growth in the first quarter and stimulus measures that the central government outlined in early March have afforded Beijing more time in unleashing economic aid.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 2.78% to close at 3823.78 this week, making its 2^nd consecutive weekly gains. Top weekly gainers including industrials such as HKland, JMH, Keppel and YZJ Ship and financials such as SGX and DBS.

HKland announced the sale of One Exchange Square in Hong Kong to the HKEX for HK$6.3 billion(S$1.1 billion). It also launched a US$200 million share buyback programme, aiming to return capital to shareholders and reduce share capital by cancelling repurchased shares. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Modestly Down While Asian Markets Rebound

 

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Apr 18, U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week modestly lower(markets were closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday), with the S&P 500(SPX) down 1.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) down around 2.6%. For the full year, the SPX is now down about 10.2%, while the Nasdaq is lower by around 15.7%. The move last week was driven once again by tariff uncertainty. New export restrictions on semiconductors to China put pressure on large U.S. semi companies like NVIDIA. In addition, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed is likely to remain patient on rate cuts, given that tariffs potentially weigh on both inflation and economic growth. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S. to add new restrictions on the exports of chips in a further escalation of the ongoing trade was between U.S. and China. The news sent shares of NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices, and other companies with artificial intelligence exposure lower on Wednesday, weighing on the broader sector. 

2.    Policy uncertainty weighs on housing market. On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index reported that the index—which gauges the overall sentiment of homebuilders—was 40 in April, inching up one point from March but remaining under the threshold of 50, indicating that a majority of homebuilders have a negative outlook on the market. Housing starts data also indicated that construction of new homes decreased by over 11% in March to an annualized rate of 1.32 million, falling short of consensus estimates for 1.42 million. 

3.    Treasuries rebounded some from the prior week’s sell-off that was sparked by heightened uncertainty around global trade. 

 

SPX sectors in play

Five out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains. Defensive sectors outperformed the growth.  Energy(XLE) and Utilities(XLU) were among top gainers while Technology(XLK) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The whole week the SPX index was trading within its Apr 9 giant 532-points day range 4948-5480, continue watching this range to be breakout for further market direction going forward. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets advanced for the week amid expectations that Beijing will ramp up stimulus to blunt the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.19% while the blue chip CSI 300 rose 0.59%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 2.30%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the country’s statistics bureau said on Wednesday. The better-than-expected increase gave little comfort for policymakers, however, as it reflected growth before higher U.S. tariffs kicked in earlier this month and was driven by front-loaded shipments from buyers seeking to get ahead of the tariff hikes, according to analysts. The impact of the U.S. levies on China will likely become apparent in the coming months following the Trump administration’s decision to raise total tariffs on most Chinese goods to 145%. 

2.    Many global banks in recent days have ratcheted down their 2025 growth forecasts for China over doubts that Beijing can meet its official GDP target of around 5% growth. However, the U.S.-sparked trade war has fueled expectations that China will deploy further stimulus measures in the near term. A meeting by the ruling Communist Party’s Politburo at the end of April will likely offer more insight into officials’ thinking regarding the size and timing of any economic stimulus, Bloomberg reported. 

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) surged 5.92% to close at 3720.33 this week, making a strong rebound after recent volatility. The strong rebound was attributed to a recovery in sentiment following earlier declines linked to global trade tensions and tariff announcements. Key blue-chip stocks, particularly in the Finance and banking and industrial sectors, contributed to the gains, with notable performances from companies like ST Engineering.

In particular, SingTel and ST engineering break record in the week while SGX closed near its all-time high. The trio banks added from 6.5% to 7.3% in the week. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

A Volatile Week for U.S. Stocks Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Apr 11, U.S. stocks closed higher after a volatile week in which a slew of trade-related headlines continued to dominate investor sentiment. The week opened with equities sharply lower, extending losses from the prior week, as negative sentiment intensified ahead of Wednesday’s implementation of the Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs. However, on Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that he was authorizing a 90-day pause on the higher reciprocal tariffs for most countries, effective immediately, to allow time for negotiations. The news sent stocks rocketing higher, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining over 12% and logging its second-best day on record. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    After flirting with a 20% decline from its peak on February 19, a threshold that separates bear from bull markets, the S&P 500(SPX) posted its third-largest daily gain since World War II. The rally followed a White House announcement of a 90-day pause on the newly proposed "reciprocal" tariffs for those countries that did not retaliate to the April 2 announcement. 

2.    The tariff rate now moves lower to 10%, except for China, whose tariff rate was increased to 145%. In response, China raised its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% and will be ignoring any further tariff actions by the U.S. The respective tariff rates should effectively bring trade between the rivals to a standstill, which will have knock-on effects for supply chains and business inventories.

3.    Compared with the April 2 tariffs, the 10% universal baseline rate now looks moderate and manageable for the economy. However, the big jump in levies for China, the U.S.'s biggest source of imports, suggests that the average tariff rate is still poised to jump to about 20% – 25% from 2.3% in 2024. 

4.    The March CPI offered some encouraging news for policymakers. Inflation unexpectedly cooled, as core CPI dropped to 2.8% from 3.1%, the slowest since March of 2021 when inflation first started surging. 

5.    Volatility near historic extremes, with more room to fall than rise. The volatility index (VIX), also known as the fear index, has spiked to the highest since the early days of the 2020 pandemic. The index has been that high only eight times in the past 35 years. what history shows is once the VIX index has exceeded 43 (it reached a high of 52 on 4/8/25), forward six- and 12-month equity-market returns have been strong. That is not because volatility itself is good, but because spikes in volatility tend to occur when pessimism is already priced in. 

6.    Consumer sentiment lowest in nearly three years. The University of Michigan reported that its Index of Consumer Sentiment’s year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7% in April, the highest level since 1981. The overall index reading declined for the fourth straight month to 50.8, down 11% from March and the lowest level since June 2022. 

7.    Treasury yields surge on trade war concerns. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to well over 4.5% by Friday morning after ending the prior week under 4%.

SPX sectors in play

10 out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains. Technology(XLK), Financials(XLF) were among top gainers this week, while Energy(XLE) and small Real Estate(XLRE) sector lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

On Wednesday Apr 9, the SPX index had an intraday high-low range of 532.91 points and closed 9.5% higher, in just one day! Watch out its high-low range 4948-5480 for further market direction going forward. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets recorded a weekly loss, but declines were tempered by hopes that the spiraling trade war with the U.S. would lead Beijing to roll out fresh stimulus that would boost the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) fell 3.11% while the blue chip CSI 300 was down 2.87%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index slumped 8.47%. (refer to the above weekly performance table). Both the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices advanced for four straight trading days ended Friday following reports that top government leaders met Thursday to discuss additional stimulus to counter higher U.S. tariffs.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    On Friday, China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84% starting April 12, a day after the Trump administration clarified that the total tariffs on China reached 145%. However, Beijing called the U.S.’s latest increase a “joke” and appeared to rule out any more increases on its part. “The U.S.’s repeated imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China has become a numbers game, which has no practical economic significance,” a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said in comments posted on its site. “If the U.S. continues to play the numbers game of tariffs, China will ignore it.” 

2.    U.S. levies may reduce China’s gross domestic product between 1% and 2% this year, a forecast by economists that predated the past week’s tariff escalation. Regardless of the magnitude of headline tariff increases, economists think that Beijing has the capacity to offset their impact through more fiscal stimulus. Given that China’s economy has been deleveraging for the past several years in the aftermath of a nationwide property bubble, policymakers have more room to maneuver. Moreover, China’s leaders have clearly signaled their intention to boost domestic consumption, a trend that is expected to continue.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) slumped 8.19% to close at 3512.53 this week, the index gave back all its yearly gain and losing 7.26% YTD at end of the week. A massive selloff intr-week that hit lowest since last Aug, before recouping some losses by Friday. The decline was led by banks and few large caps. Despite the weekly decline, certain sectors, such as hospitality and banking, showed resilience, with companies like ST Engineering, Sembcorp Ind, SGX, SingTel remain in strong uptrending.

Refer to below STI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Tariffs Triggers Steepest Weekly Stock Decline in Five Years

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Apr 4, stocks fell sharply in response to the Trump’s announcement of a broad range of harsher-than-expected tariffs, which fueled concerns around the potential for slowing economic growth, resurgent inflation, and a possible recession. Small-cap stocks lagged as the Russell 2000 Index(RUT) lost about 10% and ended the week down over 25% from its all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index posted its worst weekly performance in over five years, was down 17.5% from its peak. The tariff announcement led to the largest one-day decline for some indexes since 2020 on Thursday, and stocks continued to slide through Friday. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week and monthly performance for March.

Major indexes monthly performance for March:

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    On April 2, President Donald Trump announced U.S. reciprocal tariff plans that were more aggressive than expected. A 10% minimum tariff will apply to all imports coming into the U.S. beginning April 5 while higher tariffs will be charged on countries that the U.S. has larger trade deficits with. The new tariffs are estimated to raise the effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from 2.3% in 2024 to between 20% - 25%, the highest in at least 100 years. 

2.    On April 4, China announced retaliatory tariffs, matching the U.S. reciprocal tariff rate of 34%. 

3.    The tariff announcement, and China's retaliation, drove risk-off sentiment in markets, with equities finishing the week sharply lower and U.S. Treasury yields declining to their lowest since October 2024. 

4.    From 2000 - 2024, the average U.S. tariff rate for all imports was a modest 1.7%. Based on the announced tariffs, the average U.S. tariff rate is expected to jump to between 20% – 25%. In 2024, the U.S. economy imported roughly $3.3 trillion of goods. Assuming an average tariff rate of 20%, this would equate to tariff revenue of roughly $660 billion, or roughly 2.3% of 2024 GDP. 

5.    Uncertainty likely to remain on coming weeks, as it remains uncertain as to how the impacted countries will respond. Some may take a similar approach to China, retaliating with levies on U.S. exports, while others may seek negotiations to lower tariff rates over time. It’s expected this process to play out in the weeks and months ahead, likely keeping market volatility elevated in the near term. 

6.    Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) officially entering bear markets this week. Declined 22.9% and 25.6% from their peak. While Dow Jones Industry Averages (DJI) and S&P 500 index(SPX) dropped 15% and 17.5% from their peak respectively, also in deep correction territory. 

7.    Job growth surges in March. The closely watched nonfarm payrolls report on Friday showed that the U.S. employers added 228k jobs in March, a sharp increase from February’s downwardly revised reading of 117k and well ahead of estimates for 130k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% However, the upbeat report did little to improve sentiment during the week as investors remained focused on the potential impacts of new tariff policies moving forward. 

8.    Expectations for the number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 jumped following the announcement, as investors wagered that negative growth effects from the new policies will force the Fed to ease monetary policy to support the labor market and spur economic growth. 

SPX sectors in play

All the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly losses from down 2.4% to 14.8%. Technology(XLK), Financials(XLF) and Energy(XLE) were hit hardest with more than 10% decline. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All major indexes in deep losses this week, the S&P 500 Index(SPX) posted its worst weekly performance in over five years. Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) officially entering bear markets this week. Declined 22.9% and 25.6% from their peak. While Dow Jones Industry Averages (DJI) and S&P 500 index(SPX) dropped 15% and 17.5% from their peak respectively, also in deep correction territory.

SPX long-term technical support 4740-4800 area, around 300points lower from current level. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets declined in a holiday-shortened week. For the week ended Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 0.28% while the blue chip CSI 300 fell 1.37%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 2.46%. (refer to the above weekly performance table). Stock markets on the mainland and Hong Kong were closed Friday for the Qingming Festival.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Following the Trump administration’s decision to hike tariffs on China by 34%, Beijing said that it would also impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10. It also announced several other measures taking aim at bilateral trade activity, effective immediately. The measures included: restricting exports of several kinds of rare earths, launching an antidumping probe into medical CT X-ray tubes from the U.S., halting poultry and sorghum imports from a handful of U.S. companies, adding 11 U.S. defense companies to a so-called unreliable entity list, and other actions. Several Chinese government ministries simultaneously announced the measures Friday evening. 

2.   China’s rapid response and the wide range of restrictions surprised some analysts, who had expected a more measured response. In the past, Beijing waited until U.S. duties were in place before retaliating. The latest U.S. tariffs will increase levies on nearly all Chinese products to at least 54%, Bloomberg reported. U.S. tariffs may reduce China’s GDP between 1% and 2%, a shortfall that the central government has the capacity to offset. Moreover, they expect that China will roll out more fiscal stimulus in stages this year as it assesses the economic toll of tariffs and whether they can be negotiated down.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) declined 3.69% to close at 3825.86 this week- its lowest in 10 weeks. The decline was led by the three local banks, PM Lawrence Wong warned U.S tariffs could trigger “full-blown global trade war”.

Top weekly gainers include defensive plays such as SingTel, ST engineering, Sembcorp Ind and REITs such as CapitaLand Ascendas REIT(CLAR) and Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust(CICT). Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Maybank Research stock recommendations after post-tariffs as below.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.