Solid First Half 2024, SPX rose 4% for Q2 and 14% for 1H

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    Major indexes monthly performance for June 

3.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

4.    S&P 500 sector index weekly performance

5.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap

6.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap

7.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week ended Jun 28, most major U.S. stock indexes posted gains in a light news week during what seemed to be a bit of a lull in market activity ahead of second-quarter earnings reports. Small-cap(Russell 2000) and technology (Nasdaq Composite Index) performed best, with growth stocks outpacing their value cousins. It’s the end of quarter and end of first half of the year, the broader market(SPX) is up almost 4% since the end of March and 14% for the first half of the year. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance table.

Major indexes monthly perormance for the month of June.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Stocks posted a strong first-half gain, helped by ongoing positive economic readings and the ongoing prospects of a Fed rate cut materializing this year. Strong first halves have historically seen markets go on to produce above-average full-year returns. 

2.    Winners in the first half included mega-cap technology (again), powered by ongoing excitement around AI. At the same time, some more traditionally defensive segments, areas like utilities and gold, also saw strong performance to start the year. 

3.    On the other side, what didn't fare as well in the first half were things like volatility (market swings were historically low), small-cap equities, and interest-rate predictions, which required material revisions amid incoming inflation and economic readings. 

4.    Enthusiasm around AI continued in full force in the first half, with the mega-cap technology names delivering outsized gains. The so-called Magnificent 7 (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Tesla, Meta, Amazon) were in pole position again, logging an average gain of 39% (despite a double-digit decline for Tesla). NVIDIA continued in its role as the poster child for the AI mania in the markets, with shares rising around 150% as the company ascended to the top spot as the world's largest by market cap. 

5.    Core PCE inflation slows to rose 0.1% in May from 0.3% in April. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, so markets welcomed the deceleration from April’s upwardly revised 0.3% pace as an indication that a September Fed rate cut is more likely. 

6.    Q2 earnings will kick start coming into Jul. Mega-tech names continue under spotlight.

 

SPX sectors in play

Only two out of the 11 sectors of SPX closed with gains for the week. Energy(XLE), Communication Services(XLC) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY) outperformed, while Utilities(XLU) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both COMP and SPX hit new record highs intra-week before closing off their best levels. COMP edged high 4^th week gains in a row while SPX edged lower on close. All three major indexes i.e SPX, COMP and DJI uptrend are still well intact, expected some sideways consolidation going forward short term. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.  

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks weakened as a light economic calendar and concerns about the slowing economy curbed risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined 1.03%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gave up 0.97%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index lost 1.72%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s Industrial profits at large companies edged up 0.7% in May from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics reported, down from April’s 4% gain. China’s official purchasing managers’ index(PMI) for June just released on Sunday(30 Jun) was 49.5 same as forecasted. The private sector Caixin factory survey will be out on July 1. 

2.    Foreign selling also contributed to the week’s declines. Global funds sold about RMB 49.4 billion of onshore shares via trading links with Hong Kong in June through last Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, putting China’s market on track for its first monthly outflow since January. The selling pressure from overseas investors comes as many Chinese companies have disappointed investors with lower-than-expected quarterly earnings, underscoring the economy’s weak growth outlook.

Click below title to view weekly charts.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

STI index closed positive this week again for 2^nd consecutive week, with 0.81% gain. Technically, the index appears bullish, trading above all major moving averages. Immediate major resistance level is around 3400, immediate technical support 3250 level.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

Stocks Continue Climbing Higher as Gains Appear to Broaden

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly performance 

4.   China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week ended Jun 21, the three U.S major indexes recorded modest gains over the shortened trading week, helping push the S&P 500 Index(SPX) to fresh all-time highs. The week also saw modest signs of a broadening and rotation in the market, with value stocks outperforming growth shares and most of the major benchmarks outperforming the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite(COMP). Refer to below major indexes weekly performance table.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Nvidia(NVDA) unseated Microsoft(MSFT) as the world's most valuable company intra-week before its profit-taking Thursday and Friday, with a market capitalization 30% larger than the entire small-cap universe. Top three of most valuable companies by market cap by Friday: Microsoft 3.34T, Apple $3.18T, Nvidia $3.11T. 

2.    Fed interest rate cut. Current market pricing implies a 60% chance of a September cut followed by one more in December. 

3.    As reported on Tuesday, retail sales had increased only 0.1% in May, according to advance estimates, while falling a downwardly revised 0.2% in April. Growth was positive but slower than expected, suggesting that consumers are exercising more caution amid tighter budgets. 

4.    The Federal Reserve announced that industrial production had expanded 0.9% in May, well above consensus expectations and the fastest pace in nearly a year. Factories were also operating at 78.7% of capacity, a tick above expectations and the highest level since last November. 

5.    Important economic data release coming week: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

 

SPX sectors in play

Only three out of the 11 sectors of SPX closed with gains. Technology( XLK) outperformed while Energy(XLE) and Financials(XLF) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP hit new record highs again this week. Both indexes recorded 3^rd consecutive weekly gains. Nvidia broke an eight-week winning streak with a 4% weekly slide. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.  

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks fell as mixed economic data dampened investor sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined 1.14%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gave up 1.3%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 0.48%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s Industrial production rose a weaker-than-expected 5.6% in May from a year earlier, slowing from April's 6.7%. Fixed asset investment grew 4% in the calendar year to May compared with a year ago but eased from the January to April period as real estate investment declines deepened. Meanwhile, retail sales increased an above-consensus 3.7% in May from a year earlier and outpaced April’s 2.3% gain. The nationwide urban unemployment rate remained steady at 5%. 

2.    The People’s Bank of China injected RMB 182 billion into the banking system via its medium-term lending facility and left the lending rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. 

3.    New home prices extend declines. China’s new home prices fell 0.7% in May, accelerating from a 0.6% drop in April, marking the steepest month-on-month contraction in nearly a decade, according to the statistics bureau.

Hang Seng Index component stocks weekly return:

Click below title to view weekly charts.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

STI index edged higher, ended two weeks down streak with 0.26% gain. It’s hovering its downtrend line, appears to be in consolidation (refer to STI weekly chart below). Immediate major resistance level is around 3400, immediate technical support 3250 level.

STI Index component stocks weekly return:

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

Fed Signals One Rate Cut in 2024, Stocks Continue Narrow Advance

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Main Content:

1.   Major indexes weekly performance 

2.   U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.   S&P 500 sector index weekly performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week ended Jun 14, the three U.S major indexes ended mostly higher, with the S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite(COMP) touching new highs. The market’s advance remained exceptionally narrow for the second consecutive week. AI related stocks appeared to provide a continuing tailwind to technology-related stocks and growth shares. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance table.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    The June FOMC meeting and U.S. inflation data were front and center for the week, with both offering some positive news for the bulls. 

2.   As expected, the Federal Reserve also kept rates on hold at its June meeting at 5.25% - 5.5%. The Fed's updated set of estimates pointed to one rate cut in 2024, down from the three rate cuts forecast at its March meeting. 

3.    Inflation data came in lower than expected, with headline CPI inflation for May coming in at 3.3% year-over-year, below forecasts and last month's 3.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 3.4% in May, below forecasts of 3.5% and last month's 3.6%. After a string of hotter U.S. inflation readings for the first three months of the year, last week's reading was welcome news for markets. 

SPX sectors in play

Only three out of the 11 sectors of SPX closed with gains. Growth stocks outpaced value. Technology( XLK) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY) outperformed while Energy(XLE) and Financials(XLF) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP hit new record highs this week. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA) helped the COMP index edge to an all-time high for the fifth consecutive day after previous week pull back. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.  

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks fell in a holiday-shortened week as data showed that deflationary pressures continued to weigh on the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined 0.61%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gave up 0.91%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index was down 2.31%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table). Markets in China were closed Monday for the Dragon Boat Festival.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s consumer price index rose a below-expected 0.3% in May from a year earlier, unchanged from April’s rise. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.6%, slowing from April’s 0.7% increase. The producer price index fell 1.4% from a year ago, its 20th month of decline, but eased from a 2.5% drop in April. Weak consumer confidence and a protracted property sector slump have kept a lid on prices in China despite numerous measures from Beijing to prop up the economy and markets over the past year. 

2.   Data from the Dragon Boat Festival highlighted the consumer caution in China. Tourism revenue over the three-day holiday rose 8.1% from the 2023 break but lagged pre-pandemic levels, according to Ministry of Culture and Tourism data. Domestic traffic rose 6.3% from last year. However, average spending per traveler fell 12.3% from 2019, Bloomberg reported, citing Citigroup research. Some analysts predict that the government will continue rolling out support to stoke demand as weak consumer sentiment remains a drag on the economy.

Hang Seng Index component stocks weekly return:

Click below title to view weekly charts.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

STI index was down for 2^nd week, lost 1%, after it hit major technical resistance(refer to STI weekly chart below). However, it appears to be a healthy pull-back while it still trading well above its major moving averages 20/50 and 200 weekly MA. Immediate resistance level is around 3400, immediate technical support 3250 level.

STI Index component stocks weekly return:

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

The SPX and Nasdaq Ended the Week with Record High

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Table of Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    S&P 500 sector index weekly performance 

3.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week ended Jun 7, the three U.S major indexes closed higher. The S&P 500 Index(SPX) and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite(COMP) reached record intraday highs, but the smaller-cap indexes(RUT) pulled back. Relatedly, growth stocks outpaced value shares by the widest amount since early in the year, as falling longer-term interest rates increased the notional value of future earnings. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance table.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Economic data on Friday reported stronger-than-expected payroll and wage growth in May, further dampening hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. However, the S&P 500 still ended the week higher, its sixth weekly gain out of the past seven. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 272k last month, a sharp jump from 165k in April and well above analysts' expectations for a gain closer to 185k. 

2.    Mixed inflation signals. The unemployment rate increased, average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, above consensus and the most since January. The ISM data suggested that overall price pressures were concentrated in the much larger services sector while easing in the struggling manufacturing sector, due largely to falling commodity prices. 

3.    The focus now shifts to next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Fed's policy meeting on June 11–12.

 

SPX sectors in play

Five out of the 11 sectors of SPX closed with gains. Growth stocks outpaced value. Some of the steam seemed to come out of the fast-growing artificial intelligence (AI) sector, however. News arrived that U.S. officials have slowed the issuing of licenses to chipmakers for AI chip sales to the Middle East and were opening antitrust investigations into Microsoft and NVIDIA over their dominance of AI. Technology(XLK) and Communication Services(XLC) were among top performers while Energy(XLE) and Utilities(XLU) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP rebounded and hit record high after previous week pull back.  Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.  

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks retreated despite data showing that the property sector may be gaining traction. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined 1.15%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gave up 0.16%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 1.59%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    The value of new home sales by the country’s top 100 developers rose 11.5% in May, up from April’s 3.4% increase, according to the China Real Estate Information Corp. New home sales slumped 33.6% in May from a year ago but eased from April’s 45% decline. The data boosted hopes that China’s property market downturn, now in its fourth year, may start to recover after Beijing announced a rescue package in May to stabilize the struggling sector. 

2.    The private Caixin/S&P Global survey of manufacturing activity edged up to 51.7 in May from April’s 51.4, marking its seventh monthly expansion. The Caixin services purchasing managers’ index reached an above-consensus 54 in May, rising from 52.5 in April. 

3.    China’s exports rose a better-than-expected 7.6% in May from a year earlier, up from 1.5% growth in April. Imports increased a weaker-than-expected 1.8% in May, slowing from April’s 8.4% rise. The overall trade surplus increased to USD 82.62 billion, up from USD 72.35 billion in April.

Hang Seng Index component stocks weekly return:

Click below title to view weekly charts.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

STI index edged lower 0.17% for the week after three-week winning streak. The index appear still bullish, expect profit taking as it approaching major resistance level. Immediate resistance level is around 3400, immediate technical support 3300 level.

STI Index component stocks weekly return:

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.